Tag Archives: Odds

Formula One: Lewis becomes the bookies favourite for the 2016 WDC

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After securing back to back victories the Austrian and British Grand Prix, Lewis Hamilton has become the bookies favourite to secure the 2016 Formula One World Championship. This despite a 1 point deficit to team mate Nico Rosberg in the current standings and having no fresh engines available for the remainder of the season without having to take grid penalties.

William Hill are currently offering odds of 1/3 for Lewis Hamilton to secure his 4th World Championship, with odds on Nico Rosberg taking the crown at 9/4. Such odds from bookmakers echo comments from the likes of Bernie Ecclestone and Jackie Stewart commenting:

“I think Lewis will win,” Said Ecclestone  “I don’t mean to say that it would be better for Formula 1, or that it’s anything bad about Nico. I would just put my money on Lewis.”

“Lewis will be champion again. There is no doubt. He is simply the best and especially the fastest driver in the field.” Joined Stewart.

There is a feeling in the paddock that the tide has turned in the 2016 Championship battle. Mercedes AMG Petronas are working with Lewis to minimise the impact of looming engine penalties, seeking to extend the life of his final power unit to a track in which taking a fresh engine and subsequent penalty will be minimised. It is likely the team will take a double penalty (introduce two engines on a single wkd) at a race such as Monza or Spa where they can expect to dominate.

For more odds from William Hill on the 2016 F1 Championship Challenge click here

Formula One: Baku – Anyone’s Race?

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Nico Rosberg may have claimed pole position for the inaugural Grand Prix of Europe from Baku, but the race for the top step is far from over.

The street circuit, featuring a 2,2km flat out section followed by the tightest series of corners on the F1 calender only a few moments later has proved to be a truly unique challenge for drivers and engineers. In the quest for ultimate top speed teams have been forced into a low downforce set up leaving cars on the absolute edge. This coupled with high pressured , hard compound tyres from Pirelli, alongside a number of niggling 1st race issues around the Baku venue gives us a thrilling Grand Prix in prospect.

The attrition rate seen in the GP2 feature race hinted at the spectacle we can expect in the F1 race. Overtaking is possible all over the circuit, T1 the most common. Run off zones whilst small are just about large enough for drivers to force competitors into them without risk of penalty. All in all, the F1 race really could be anyone’s. Judging by the GP2 race pole position or running in first place could actually work against a driver, expect oval racing levels of slipstreaming and overtaking along the main straight.

With this in mind bookmakers have been surprisingly generous in the odds being offered on drivers in the top ten.  It’s hard to pick out one specific driver to follow for the race, so I’m suggesting 5!

Lewis Hamilton -Dominated the weekend until  a shocker in qualifying, starting 10th on the grid. He is in the fastest car and Mercedes have introduced a low downforce wing which should mitigate the issues the team have had running in traffic in earlier races this season.  Winner odds 3/1

Sergio Perez – Second only to Nico Rosberg in qualifying. A gearbox penalty drops him to 7th on the grid, but after a podium in Monaco, and rumours of Ferrari considering him for 2017, Perez will be eager to impress. A great offering of 40/1 – consider an each way bet

Kimi Raikkonen – Yes Vettel out-qualified him, but he has been quietly doing his thing around Baku, and has engaged reverse far fewer times than his competitors this weekend. Also offering at 40/1

Max Verstappen / Carlos Saniz – How bold are you feeling? If Baku is to be a race of attrition, which may expect it will be. Max showed the world in Canada how calm he can be under pressure, at 80/1 the return could be great! More out there, but an even greater opportunity, Sainz. Arguably driver of the day in the last few races. With a new contract under his belt Saniz could be a great outside bet and a huge pay day at 500/1! Are you feeling bold?

Check out these odds and more at William Hill.

Finally, don’t forget to check out the live IN-PLAY odds available during F1 Races. In a race of attrition there could be some special odds availble for the fast fingered. To find out more about IN PLAY odds, check out my feature here.

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Formula One: In-play odds reach Formula One

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In-play odds are nothing new to football fans who place bets online. For years customers have been able to bet on matches as a game evolves. With the evolution of mobile gambling apps the popularity of this functionality is one of the most significant growth areas for bookmakers.

Essentially, In-play gambling is achieved through a book maker constantly adjusting odds on factors within an event, whilst the event is taking place. In the case of football this can range from the overall result to who will score next, to whether or not a player will finish a match. Gambling within football has become so engrained within the sport it is possible to bet on almost any element of a game and do so live.

Frequent readers of this site will have seen I recently started posting gambling watch-outs or tips over a Grand Prix weekend such as this one for Monaco. In my preview I sighted Force India drivers Nico Hulkenberg and Sergio Perez as watch-outs for the weekend if the forecast rain arrived. As it transpired, the rain did come and Sergio Perez found himself in a possible podium position half way through the race. At this point I tweeted a question about what odds would be availble for Perez to win now and how great it would be if bookies offered in-play odds in Formula One. To my surprise William Hill replied, and confirmed they do in fact offer in-play odds in F1, and that the live odds for Perez at that time were 6/1, down from the 200/1 when I made my original forecast for the weekend.

Intrigued by this development, which as an F1 fan not adverse to a little (responsible) gambling from time to time, I made some enquires with William Hill to find how in-play / live odds evolve over an F1 race.

The graphs below illustrate the dynamic odds availble for the top 4 finishers of the 2016 Monaco Grand Prix. The time period involved is from the night before the race up until the final lap.

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For ease of illustration I have changed the odds to decimal rather than more traditional fractional. The figures shown represent the return a customer would see for a correct 1 (£,€,$) bet placed at the given times during the race. For reference I have added pointers to a number of influencing points in the race.

It is worth noting that at any time, a customer could place an each way bet on the result. This would lead to a payout at 1/5 of the odds offered for a win should the driver finish in 2nd or 3rd. This means that on the final lap of the race you could have placed money on Sergio Perez to win at 100/1, and been paid out at 20/1 for him securing 3rd place.

The growth of in-play betting in Formula One demonstrates that the sport is receiving attention from the broader sporting community. This development further necessitates live viewing. The gambling sector has a loud and powerful voice when it comes to the way in which sport is consumed by fans. It is possible growth of in-play F1 gambling as a revenue stream for the sport will serve to encourage Formula One Management to focus maximising audience size. In order to achieve this perhaps they will consider relaxing or reviewing pay TV fee structure in order to gain increased revenue from growth of the gambling sector.

To read my tips for the Canadian Grand Prix, click here.

To see my preview for the Canadian Grand Prix, click here.

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